Real Estate Tops Best Investment Poll for 7th Year Running

7/22/2020

Real Estate Tops Best Investment Poll for 7th Year Running

Investing in Real Estate tops all other long-term investing

Every year, Gallup conducts a survey of Americans to determine their choice for the best long-term investment. Respondents are asked to select real estate, stocks/mutual funds, gold, savings accounts/CDs, or bonds.

For the seventh year in a row, real estate has come out on top as the best long-term investment. Gallup explained:

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“Real estate remains the most favored investment to Americans, as has been the case since 2013, when the housing market was on the rebound. More than a third of Americans have named real estate as the top investment since 2016.”

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This year’s results indicated 35% of Americans chose real estate, followed by stocks at 21%. The full results covering the last decade are shown in the chart below:

Americans consider real estate the top long-term investment strategy for 7th straight year

Bottom Line

The belief of the American people in the stability of housing as a long-term investment remains strong, even through the many challenges our economy faces today.

If you’re thinking of buying a home, now may be a great time for a long-term investment, as mortgage interest rates remain at historically low rates. A trusted real estate professional can answer your questions and help you determine your next steps.

Feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions about the home buying process in the East Valley. Just give me a call/text at 602-295-6807 and I will be glad to help.

Troy Erickson has been blogging about Arizona real estate since 2006. He is a residential real estate agent who specializes in helping home buyers, sellers, and investors in Chandler and the East Valley. He has been recognized for his local market expertise, and frequently volunteers within his community.

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What Are the Experts Saying About Future Home Prices?

7/9/2020

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What Are the Experts Saying About Future Home Prices?

The Future of Home Prices During COVID-19

A worldwide pandemic and an economic recession have had a tremendous effect on the nation. The uncertainty brought about by both has made predicting consumer behavior nearly impossible. For that reason, forecasting home prices has become extremely difficult.

Normally, there’s a simple formula to determine the future price of any item: calculate the supply of that item in ratio to the demand for that item. In housing right now, demand far exceeds supply. Mortgage applications to buy a home just rose to the highest level in 11 years while inventory of homes for sale is at (or near) an all-time low. That would usually indicate strong appreciation for home values as we move throughout the year.

Some experts, however, are not convinced the current rush of purchasers is sustainable. Ralph McLaughlin, Chief Economist at Haus, explained in their June 2020 Hausing Market Forecast why there is concern:

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“The upswing that we’ll see this summer is a result of pent-up demand from homebuyers and supply-in-progress from homebuilders that has simply been pushed off a few months. However, after this pent-up demand goes away, the true economic scarring due to the pandemic will begin to affect the housing market as the tide of pent-up demand goes out.”

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The virus and other challenges currently impacting the industry have created a wide range of thoughts regarding the future of home prices. Here’s a list of analysts and their projections, from the lowest depreciation to the highest appreciation:

CoreLogic: Year-Over-Year decline of -1.5%
Haus: Year-Over-Year decline of -1%
Zillow: Year-Over-Year change is forecasted to bottom out at -0.7%.
Home Price Expectation Survey: Decline of -0.3% in 2020
Fannie Mae: Increase of 0.4% in 2020
Freddie Mac: Increase of 2.3% in 2020
Zelman & Associates: Increase of 3.0% in 2020
National Association of Realtors: Increase of 3.8% in 2020
Mortgage Bankers Association: Increase of 4.0% in 2020

We can garner two important points from this list:

There is no real consensus among the experts.
No one projects prices to crash like they did in 2008.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re thinking of buying a home or selling your house, know that home prices will not change dramatically this year, even with all of the uncertainty we’ve faced in 2020.

If you’re thinking of selling, many buyers may be eager to find a home just like yours. If you’re thinking of buying a home, interest rates remain at historically low rates. A trusted real estate professional can answer your questions and help you determine your next steps.

Feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions about the home buying process in Chandler or the East Valley. Just give me a call/text at 602-295-6807 and I will be glad to help.

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: 602-295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
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New Index Reveals Impact of COVID-19 on Real Estate

7/8/2020

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New Index Reveals Impact of COVID-19 on the Housing Market and East Valley Real Estate

Earlier this month, realtor.com announced the release of their initial Housing Recovery Index, a weekly guide showing how the pandemic has impacted the residential real estate market. The index leverages a weighted average of four key components of the housing industry, tracking each of the following:

Housing Demand – Growth in online search activity
Home Price – Growth in asking prices
Housing Supply – Growth of new listings
Pace of Sales – Difference in time-on-market

The index then compares the current status “to the last week of January 2020 market trend, as a baseline for pre-COVID market growth. The overall index is set to 100 in this baseline period. The higher a market’s index value, the higher its recovery and vice versa.”

The graph below charts the index by showing how the real estate market started out strong in early 2020, and then dropped dramatically at the beginning of March when the pandemic paused the economy. It also shows the strength of the recovery since the beginning of May.

It’s clear to see that the housing market is showing promising signs of recovery from the deep economic cuts we experienced earlier this spring. As noted by Dean Mon, Chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):

“As the nation reopens, housing is well-positioned to lead the economy forward.”

The data today indicates the housing market is already on the way up.

Bottom Line

Staying connected to the housing market’s performance over the coming months will be essential, as we continue to evaluate exactly how the housing market is doing in this uncharted time ahead.

If you’re thinking of selling, many buyers may be eager to find a home just like yours. If you’re thinking of buying a home, interest rates remain at historically low rates. A trusted real estate professional can answer your questions and help you determine your next steps.

Feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions about the home buying process in Chandler or the East Valley. Just give me a call/text at 602-295-6807 and I will be glad to help.

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: 602-295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
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Buying a Home Right Now: Easy? No. Smart? Yes.

5/26/2020

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Buying a Chandler or East Valley Home Right Now: Easy? No. Smart? Yes.

Buying a home during the Coronavirus Pandemic | Troy Erickson Realtor

Through all the volatility in the economy right now, some have put their search for a home on hold, yet others have not. According to ShowingTime, the real estate industry’s leading showing management technology provider, buyers have started to reappear over the last several weeks. In the latest report, they revealed:

“The March ShowingTime Showing Index® recorded the first nationwide drop in showing
traffic in eight months as communities responded to COVID-19. Early April data show
signs of an upswing, however.”

Why would people be setting appointments to look at prospective homes when the process of purchasing a home has become more difficult with shelter-in-place orders throughout the country?

Here are three reasons for this uptick in activity:

1. Some people need to move. Whether because of a death in the family, a new birth, divorce, financial hardship, or a job transfer, some families need to make a move as quickly as possible.

2. Real estate agents across the country have become very innovative, utilizing technology that allows purchasers to virtually:

View homes
Meet with mortgage professionals
Consult with their agent throughout the process

All of this can happen within the required safety protocols, so real estate professionals are continuing to help families make important moves.

3. Buyers understand that mortgage rates are a key component when determining their monthly mortgage payments. Mortgage interest rates are very close to all-time lows and afford today’s purchaser the opportunity to save tens of thousands of dollars over the lifetime of the loan.

Looking closely at the third reason, we can see that there’s a big difference between purchasing a house last year and purchasing one now (see chart below):

Is now a good time to buy with interest rates so low | Troy Erickson Realtor

Bottom Line

Many families have decided not to postpone their plans to purchase a home, even in these difficult times. If you need to make a move, reach out to a local real estate professional today so you have a trusted advisor to safely and professionally guide you through the process.

If you are looking to buy during this Coronavirus crisis, we can help you. We have adjusted the way we work with home buyers and sellers, and have the processes and resources in place to help. Feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions about what it takes to get your Phoenix Metro or East Valley home sold during these trying times. Just give me a call/text at 602-295-6807 and I will be glad to help.

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: 602-295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
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Will This Economic Crisis Have a V, U, or L-Shaped Recovery?

5/11/2020

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Will This Economic Crisis Have a V, U, or L-Shaped Recovery?

How is the Economy going to recover from the Coronavirus Pandemic | Troy Erickson Realtor

Many American businesses have been put on hold as the country deals with the worst pandemic in over one hundred years. As the states are deciding on the best strategy to slowly and safely reopen, the big question is: how long will it take the economy to fully recover?

Let’s look at the possibilities. Here are the three types of recoveries that follow most economic slowdowns (the definitions are from the financial glossary at Market Business News):

V-shaped recovery: an economic period in which the economy experiences a sharp decline. However, it is also a brief period of decline. There is a clear bottom (called a trough by economists) which does not last long. Then there is a strong recovery.
U-shaped recovery: when the decline is more gradual, i.e., less severe. The recovery that follows starts off moderately and then picks up speed. The recovery could last 12-24 months.
L-shaped recovery: a steep economic decline followed by a long period with no growth. When an economy is in an L-shaped recovery, getting back to where it was before the decline will take years.

What type of recovery will we see this time?

No one can answer this question with one hundred percent certainty. However, most top financial services firms are calling for a V-shaped recovery. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Securities, and JP Morgan have all recently come out with projections that call for GDP to take a deep dive in the first half of the year but have a strong comeback in the second half.

COVID-19 Economic Recovery | Troy Erickson Realtor

Is there any research on recovery following a pandemic?

There have been two extensive studies done that look at how an economy has recovered from a pandemic in the past. Here are the conclusions they reached:

1. John Burns Consulting:

“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that
recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices), and some very cutting-edge
search engine analysis by our Information Management team showed the current slowdown
is playing out similarly thus far.”

2. Harvard Business Review:

“It’s worth looking back at history to place the potential impact path of Covid-19 empirically.
In fact, V-shapes monopolize the empirical landscape of prior shocks, including epidemics such
as SARS, the 1968 H3N2 (“Hong Kong”) flu, 1958 H2N2 (“Asian”) flu, and 1918 Spanish flu.”

The research says we should experience a V-shaped recovery.

Does everyone agree it will be a ‘V’?

No. Some are concerned that, even when businesses are fully operational, the American public may be reluctant to jump right back in.

As Market Business News explains:

“In a typical V-shaped recovery, there is a huge shift in economic activity after the downturn
and the trough. Growing consumer demand and spending drive the massive shift in economic
activity.”

If consumer demand and spending do not come back as quickly as most expect it will, we may be heading for a U-shaped recovery.

In a message last Thursday, Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, agrees with other analysts who are expecting a resurgence in the economy later this year:

“We’re forecasting real economic growth of 30% for the U.S. in the 4th quarter of this year
and 6.1% in 2021.”

His projection, however, calls for a U-shaped recovery based on concerns that consumers may not rush back in:

“After the steep plunge and bottoming out, a ‘U-shaped’ recovery should begin as consumer
confidence slowly returns.”

Bottom Line

The research indicates the recovery will be V-shaped, and most analysts agree. However, no one knows for sure how quickly Americans will get back to “normal” life. We will have to wait and see as the situation unfolds.

If you need to buy or sell your home during this Coronavirus crisis, we can help you. We have adjusted the way we work with home buyers and sellers, and have the processes and resources in place to help. Feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions about what it takes to get your Phoenix Metro or East Valley home sold during these trying times. Just give me a call/text at 602-295-6807 and I will be glad to help.

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: 602-295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
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2 Factors To Watch In Today’s Real Estate Market Whether Buying Or Selling

10/3/2018

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2 Factors To Watch In Today’s Phoenix and East Valley Real Estate Market Whether Buying Or Selling

2 Things to watch in today's Phoenix and East Valley Real Estate Market whether you are buying or selling | Troy Erickson Realtor

When it comes to buying or selling a home there are many factors you should consider. Where you want to live, why you want to buy or sell, and who will help you along your journey are just some of those factors. When it comes to today’s real estate market, though, the top two factors to consider are what’s happening with interest rates & inventory.

Interest Rates

Mortgage interest rates have been on the rise and are now over three-quarters of a percentage point higher than they were at the beginning of the year. According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, rates climbed to 4.72% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage last week.

The interest rate you secure when buying a home not only greatly impacts your monthly housing costs, but also impacts your purchasing power.

Purchasing power, simply put, is the amount of home you can afford to buy for the budget you have available to spend. As rates increase, the price of the house you can afford to buy will decrease if you plan to stay within a certain monthly housing budget.

The chart below shows the impact that rising interest rates would have if you planned to purchase a $400,000 home while keeping your principal and interest payments between $2,020-$2,050 a month.

How Interest Rates Can Impact Your Monthly Housing Payments | Troy Erickson Realtor

With each quarter of a percent increase in interest rate, the value of the home you can afford decreases by 2.5% (in this example, $10,000). Experts predict that mortgage rates will be over 5% by this time next year.

Inventory

A ‘normal’ real estate market requires there to be a 6-month supply of homes for sale in order for prices to increase only with inflation. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), listing inventory is currently at a 4.3-month supply (still well below the 6-months needed), which has put upward pressure on home prices. Home prices have increased year-over-year for the last 78 straight months.

The inventory of homes for sale in the real estate market had been on a steady decline and experienced year-over-year drops for 36 straight months (from July 2015 to May 2018), but we are starting to see a shift in inventory over the last three months.

The chart below shows the change in housing supply over the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months. As you can see, in June, July, and August, inventory levels have started to increase as compared to the same time last year.

How Housing Inventory impacts demand and Home Prices | Troy Erickson Realtor

This is a trend to watch as we move further into the fall and winter months. If we continue to see an increase in homes for sale, we could start moving further away from a seller’s market and closer to a normal market.

Bottom Line

If you are planning to enter the housing market, either as a buyer or a seller, make sure that you have an experienced local agent who can help you navigate the changes in mortgage interest rates and inventory.

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: 602-295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
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Housing Market Expected To “Spring Forward” This Year

3/11/2018

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Housing Market in Chandler Expected to "Spring Forward" This Year

Housing market in Chandler and the East Valley expected to Spring Forward | Troy Erickson Realtor

Just like our clocks this weekend in the majority of the country, but not here in Chandler, Arizona, the housing market will soon “spring forward!” Similar to tension in a spring, the lack of inventory available for sale in the real estate market right now is what is holding the market back.

Many potential sellers believe that waiting until Spring is in their best interest, and traditionally they would have been right.

Buyer demand has seasonality to it, which usually falls off in the winter months, especially in areas of the country impacted by arctic temperatures and conditions, but also here in Arizona.

That hasn’t happened this year.

Demand for housing in Chandler, Arizona has remained strong as mortgage rates have remained near historic lows. Even with the recent increase in rates, buyers are still able to lock in an affordable monthly payment. Many more buyers are jumping off the fence and into the market to secure a lower rate before they increase too high.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently reported that the top 10 dates sellers listed their homes in 2017 all fell in April, May, or June.

Those who act quickly and list now could benefit greatly from additional exposure to buyers prior to a flood of more competition coming to market in the next few months.

Bottom Line

If you are planning on selling your Chandler or East Valley home in 2018, meet with a local real estate professional to evaluate the opportunities in your market.

If you have any questions about what it takes to get your local Chandler or East Valley home sold quickly, and for the highest price, just give me a call/text at 602-295-6807 and I can help answer all of your questions!

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: (602)295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
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Top 5 Reasons To Hire A Real Estate Professional In Arizona Whether You Are Buying Or Selling!

3/6/2018

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Top 5 Reasons To Hire A Real Estate Professional In Arizona Whether You Are Buying Or Selling!

Best Real Estate Agent in Chandler | Top 5 Reasons to Hire Troy Erickson Realtor

Whether you are buying or selling a home in Chandler, Arizona or throughout the East Valley, it can be quite an adventure, which is why you need an experienced real estate professional to guide you on the path to achieving your ultimate goal. In this world of instant gratification and internet searches, many sellers think that they can ‘For Sale by Owner’ or ‘FSBO’, but that can be a costly mistake.

Here are 5 reasons you NEED a real estate professional in your corner. These reasons are strengthened by the projections of higher mortgage interest rates and home prices, as the market continues to pick up steam.

1. What do you do with all this paperwork?

Arizona has different regulations regarding the contracts required for a successful sale, and these regulations are constantly changing (some have changed within the last year or two). A local real estate professional is an expert in their market, and can guide you through the stacks of paperwork necessary to make your dream a reality.

2. Ok, so you found your dream house, now what?

There are over 180 possible steps that need to take place during every successful real estate transaction. Wouldn't you rather work with a professional who has been there before, someone who knows what these actions are, to ensure that you achieve your dream?

3. Are you a good negotiator?

So maybe you’re not convinced that you need an agent to sell your home. After looking at the list of parties that you will need to be prepared to negotiate with, you’ll soon realize the value in selecting a real estate professional. From the buyers or sellers (who want the best deals possible), to the home inspectors, and all the way to the appraisers, there are at least 11 different people you will need to negotiate with, and answer to, throughout the process.

4. What is the home you’re buying/selling really worth?

It is important for your home to be priced correctly from the start, in order to attract the right buyers and shorten the amount of time that it’s on the market. You need someone who is not emotionally connected to your home to give you the truth as to your home’s value. According to a study by Collateral Analytics, FSBOs achieve prices significantly lower than those from similar properties sold by real estate agents:

“FSBOs tend to sell for lower prices than comparable home sales, and in many cases
below the average differential represented by the prevailing commission rate.”

Get the most out of your transaction by hiring a professional.

5. Do you know what’s really going on in the market?

There is so much information out there on the news and on the internet about home sales, prices, and mortgage rates; and much of it is false or misleading. How do you know what’s going on specifically in your area? Who do you turn to in order to competitively and correctly price your home at the beginning of the selling process? How do you know what to offer on your dream home without paying too much, or offending the seller with a lowball offer?

Dave Ramsey, the financial guru, advises:

“When getting help with money, whether it’s insurance, real estate or investments, you
should always look for someone with the heart of a teacher, not the heart of a salesman.”

Hiring a local agent who has their finger on the pulse of the market will make your buying or selling experience an educated one. You need someone who is going to tell you the truth, not just what they think you want to hear.

Bottom Line

You wouldn’t replace the engine in your car without a trusted mechanic, so why would you make one of the most important financial decisions of your life without hiring a real estate professional?

If you really want to know what is going on in the local East Valley real estate market when it comes to home prices, interest rates, and home sales, just call/text me at 602-295-6807 and will be more than happy to tell you, as well as work with you to help achieve your goal!

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: (602)295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
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It’s Tax Season… Use Your Refund To Jump Start Your Down Payment Savings!

3/1/2018

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Use your Tax Refund to Start Your Down Payment Savings.

Down Payment Savings using your Tax Refund | Troy Erickson Realtor

According to data released by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), Americans can expect an estimated average refund of $2,840 this year when filing their taxes. This is down slightly from the average refund of $2,895, last year.

Tax refunds are often thought of as ‘extra money’ that can be used toward larger goals. For anyone looking to buy a home in 2018, this can be a great jump start toward a down payment!

The map below shows the average tax refund Americans received last year by state. (The refunds received for the 2017 tax year should continue to reflect these numbers as the new tax code will go into effect for 2018 tax filings.)

Using your tax refund as a down payment on a home | Troy Erickson Realtor

Many first-time buyers believe that a 20% down payment is required to qualify for a mortgage. Programs from the Federal Housing Authority, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae all allow for down payments as low as 3%, with Veterans Affairs Loans allowing many veterans to purchase a home with 0% down.

If you started your down payment savings with your tax refund check this year, how close would you be to a 3% down payment?

The map below shows what percentage of a 3% down payment is covered by the average tax refund by taking into account the median price of homes sold by state.

Your tax refund can be a great start to a down payment on a new home | Troy Erickson Realtor

The darker the blue, the closer your tax refund gets you to homeownership! For those in Phoenix Metro, Chandler, or the East Valley of Arizona looking to purchase their first home, your tax refund could potentially get you 37% closer to that dream!

Bottom Line

Saving for a down payment can seem like a daunting task, especially when just getting started. However, the more you know about what’s required, the more prepared you can be to make the best decision for you and your family! This tax season, your refund could be your key to homeownership!

If you have any questions about the home buying process, or how to qualify for a home loan, just call/text me at 602-295-6807 and I can help evaluate your ability to purchase your dream home!

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: (602)295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
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Bidding Wars Abound… How Long Will They Continue?

2/20/2018

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Bidding Wars Abound… How Long Will They Continue?

Low inventory of homes is causing a bidding war | Troy Erickson Realtor

Just like with any product or service, the law of supply and demand impacts home prices. Any time that there is less supply than the market demands, prices increase.

In many areas of the country, the supply of homes for sale in the starter and trade-up home markets is so low that bidding wars have ensued, and the busy spring-buying season is just around the corner.

CoreLogic recently conducted an analysis on national home prices at the time of sale for their January 2018 MarketPulse Report and found that a third of homes sold for at least list price.

“The share selling above list price was almost three times the trough in January 2008 and
represented more than one-fifth of total sales.”

Many markets in the western part of the country and around major cities are experiencing higher shares of homes selling above list price.

“San Francisco had the largest share of homes — 76 percent — that sold for at least the list price, and
Seattle and Los Angeles followed with 63 and 51 percent, respectively. Miami had the lowest share,
16 percent, of homes selling at or above the list price.”

Increased demand during the spring and summer months, the traditionally busier seasons for real estate, will no doubt influence how many homes continue to sell over list price.

This should not be seen by sellers as permission to overprice their homes, though. Buyers are becoming more and more educated, especially those who have been searching for their dream homes for a while now while waiting for new inventory to come to market.

Realtor.com gives this advice:

“Aim to price your property at or just slightly below the going rate. Today’s buyers are highly informed,
so if they sense they’re getting a deal, they’re likely to bid up a property that’s slightly under priced,
especially in areas with low inventory.”

Bottom Line

Without a large wave of new listings coming to market, buyers will continue competing with each other for the homes that are available.

If you are thinking of selling, now may be the time. Demand for your house will be strong at a time when there is very little competition. That could lead to a quick sale for a really good price. Meet with me today, and I can explain to you exactly what’s going on in your local area!

If you have any questions about how to list and sell your home for top dollar, just call/text me at 602-295-6807 and I can help answer all of your questions!

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: 602-295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
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