Three of the Latest Reports Show Housing Market Is Strong

7/29/2020

Three of the Latest Reports Show Housing Market Is Strong

The residential real estate market is remaining resilient as the country still struggles to beat the COVID-19 pandemic. Three separate reports recently revealed how the housing market is still showing growth. Here’s a look at each one.

1. Ivy Zelman’s Real Estate Broker Survey

The survey explains that purchaser demand remains strong:

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“This month’s overall homebuyer demand rating…was easily the strongest sequential gain in our survey history…Strength continues to be led by the entry-level…While high-end demand is less robust in an absolute sense, there has also been relative improvement, with contacts attributing incremental improvement to the stock market’s rebound, record low mortgage rates and luxury customers trading out of high-priced cities.”

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2. The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index

The index reveals that builder confidence has returned to levels last seen prior to the pandemic:

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“In a strong signal that the housing market is ready to lead a post-COVID economic recovery, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped 14 points to 72 in July, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI now stands at the solid pre-pandemic reading in March before the outbreak affected much of the nation.”

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3. The realtor.com Housing Market Recovery Index

This index leverages a weighted average of four key components of the housing industry, tracking each of the following:

Housing Demand – Growth in online search activity
Home Price – Growth in asking prices
Housing Supply – Growth of new listings
Pace of Sales – Difference in time-on-market

It then compares the current status “to the last week of January 2020 market trend, as a baseline for pre-COVID market growth. The overall index is set to 100 in this baseline period. The higher a market’s index value, the higher its recovery and vice versa.”

The latest results came in at 101, with realtor.com explaining:

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“The U.S. Housing Market has recovered from the immediate disruption caused by the COVID pandemic and returned to January 2020 growth levels.”

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Bottom Line

Real estate brokers, home builders, and industry data all agree that the housing market has surged back to pre-COVID levels, showing growth, strength, and incredible resilience.

If you’re thinking of selling, the lack of inventory has many buyers eager to find a home just like yours. If you’re thinking of buying a home, interest rates remain at historically low rates. A trusted real estate professional can answer your questions and help you determine your next steps.

Feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions about the home buying process in Chandler or the East Valley. Just give me a call/text at 602-295-6807 and I will be glad to help.

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: 602-295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
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Troy Erickson has been blogging about Arizona real estate since 2006. He is a residential real estate agent who specializes in helping home buyers, sellers, and investors in Chandler and the East Valley. He has been recognized for his local market expertise, and frequently volunteers within his community.

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Real Estate Tops Best Investment Poll for 7th Year Running

7/22/2020

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Real Estate Tops Best Investment Poll for 7th Year Running

Investing in Real Estate tops all other long-term investing

Every year, Gallup conducts a survey of Americans to determine their choice for the best long-term investment. Respondents are asked to select real estate, stocks/mutual funds, gold, savings accounts/CDs, or bonds.

For the seventh year in a row, real estate has come out on top as the best long-term investment. Gallup explained:

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“Real estate remains the most favored investment to Americans, as has been the case since 2013, when the housing market was on the rebound. More than a third of Americans have named real estate as the top investment since 2016.”

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This year’s results indicated 35% of Americans chose real estate, followed by stocks at 21%. The full results covering the last decade are shown in the chart below:

Americans consider real estate the top long-term investment strategy for 7th straight year

Bottom Line

The belief of the American people in the stability of housing as a long-term investment remains strong, even through the many challenges our economy faces today.

If you’re thinking of buying a home, now may be a great time for a long-term investment, as mortgage interest rates remain at historically low rates. A trusted real estate professional can answer your questions and help you determine your next steps.

Feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions about the home buying process in the East Valley. Just give me a call/text at 602-295-6807 and I will be glad to help.

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Mortgage Rates Hit Record Lows for Three Consecutive Weeks

7/16/2020

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Mortgage Rates Hit Record Lows for Three Consecutive Weeks

Mortgage Rates Hit Record Low For Three Consecutive Weeks

Over the past several weeks, Freddie Mac has reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping to record lows, all the way down to 3.03%. Last week’s reported rate reached the lowest point in the history of the survey, which dates back to 1971 (See graph below):

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rate Reaches Lowest Level in Survey History

What does this mean for buyers?

This is huge for homebuyers. Those currently taking advantage of the increasing affordability that comes with historically low interest rates are winning big. According to Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac:

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“The summer is heating up as record low mortgage rates continue to spur homebuyer demand.”

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In addition, move.com notes:

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“Summer home buying season is off to a roaring start. As buyers flooded into the market, realtor.com® monthly traffic hit an all-time high of 86 million unique users in June 2020, breaking May’s record of 85 million unique users. Realtor.com® daily traffic also hit its highest level ever of 7 million unique users on June 25, signaling that despite the global pandemic buyers are ready to make a purchase.”

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Clearly, buyers are capitalizing on today’s low rates. As shown in the chart below, the average monthly mortgage payment decreases significantly when rates are as low as they are today.

A lower monthly payment means savings that can add up significantly over the life of a home loan. It also means that qualified buyers may be able to purchase more home for their money. Maybe that’s a bigger home than what they’d be able to afford at a higher rate, an increasingly desirable option considering the amount of time families are now spending at home given today’s health crisis.

Bottom Line

If you’re in a position to buy a home this year, it’s a great time to reach out to a local real estate professional to initiate the process while mortgage rates are historically low.

Feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions about the home buying process in Chandler or the East Valley. As a trusted real estate professional, I can answer your questions and help you determine your next steps. Just give me a call/text at 602-295-6807 and I will be glad to help.

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: 602-295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
Linkedin Profile
Facebook Page

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A Historic Rebound for the Housing Market

7/14/2020

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A Historic Rebound for the Housing Market

Pending Home Sales increased by 44.3% in May, registering the highest month-over-month gain in the index since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) started tracking this metric in January 2001. So, what exactly are pending home sales, and why is this rebound so important?

According to NAR, the Pending Home Sales Index (PHS) is:

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“A leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing-Home Sales by a month or two.”

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In real estate, pending home sales is a key indicator in determining the strength of the housing market. As mentioned before, it measures how many existing homes went into contract in a specific month. When a buyer goes through the steps to purchase a home, the final one is the closing. On average, that happens about two months after the contract is signed, depending on how fast or slow the process takes in each state.

Why is this rebound important?

With the COVID-19 pandemic and a shutdown of the economy, we saw a steep two-month decline in the number of houses that went into contract. In May, however, that number increased dramatically (See graph below):

This jump means buyers are back in the market and purchasing homes right now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR mentioned:

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“This has been a spectacular recovery for contract signings and goes to show the resiliency of American consumers and their evergreen desire for homeownership…This bounce back also speaks to how the housing sector could lead the way for a broader economic recovery.”

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But in order to continue with this trend, we need more houses for sale on the market. Yun continues to say:

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“More listings are continuously appearing as the economy reopens, helping with inventory choices…Still, more home construction is needed to counter the persistent underproduction of homes over the past decade.”

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As we move through the year, we’ll see an increase in the number of houses being built. This will help combat a small portion of the inventory deficit. The lack of overall inventory, however, is still a challenge, and it is creating an opportunity for homeowners who are ready to sell. As the graph below shows, during the last 12 months, the supply of homes for sale has been decreasing year-over-year and is not keeping up with the demand from homebuyers.

Bottom Line

If you decided not to sell this spring due to the health crisis, maybe it’s time to jump back into the market while buyers are actively looking for homes. Reach out to a local real estate professional to determine your best move forward.

If you’re thinking of selling, the lack of inventory has many buyers eager to find a home just like yours. If you’re thinking of buying a home, interest rates remain at historically low rates. A trusted real estate professional can answer your questions and help you determine your next steps.

Feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions about the home buying process in Chandler or the East Valley. Just give me a call/text at 602-295-6807 and I will be glad to help.

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: 602-295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
Linkedin Profile
Facebook Page

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What Are the Experts Saying About Future Home Prices?

7/9/2020

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What Are the Experts Saying About Future Home Prices?

The Future of Home Prices During COVID-19

A worldwide pandemic and an economic recession have had a tremendous effect on the nation. The uncertainty brought about by both has made predicting consumer behavior nearly impossible. For that reason, forecasting home prices has become extremely difficult.

Normally, there’s a simple formula to determine the future price of any item: calculate the supply of that item in ratio to the demand for that item. In housing right now, demand far exceeds supply. Mortgage applications to buy a home just rose to the highest level in 11 years while inventory of homes for sale is at (or near) an all-time low. That would usually indicate strong appreciation for home values as we move throughout the year.

Some experts, however, are not convinced the current rush of purchasers is sustainable. Ralph McLaughlin, Chief Economist at Haus, explained in their June 2020 Hausing Market Forecast why there is concern:

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“The upswing that we’ll see this summer is a result of pent-up demand from homebuyers and supply-in-progress from homebuilders that has simply been pushed off a few months. However, after this pent-up demand goes away, the true economic scarring due to the pandemic will begin to affect the housing market as the tide of pent-up demand goes out.”

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The virus and other challenges currently impacting the industry have created a wide range of thoughts regarding the future of home prices. Here’s a list of analysts and their projections, from the lowest depreciation to the highest appreciation:

CoreLogic: Year-Over-Year decline of -1.5%
Haus: Year-Over-Year decline of -1%
Zillow: Year-Over-Year change is forecasted to bottom out at -0.7%.
Home Price Expectation Survey: Decline of -0.3% in 2020
Fannie Mae: Increase of 0.4% in 2020
Freddie Mac: Increase of 2.3% in 2020
Zelman & Associates: Increase of 3.0% in 2020
National Association of Realtors: Increase of 3.8% in 2020
Mortgage Bankers Association: Increase of 4.0% in 2020

We can garner two important points from this list:

There is no real consensus among the experts.
No one projects prices to crash like they did in 2008.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re thinking of buying a home or selling your house, know that home prices will not change dramatically this year, even with all of the uncertainty we’ve faced in 2020.

If you’re thinking of selling, many buyers may be eager to find a home just like yours. If you’re thinking of buying a home, interest rates remain at historically low rates. A trusted real estate professional can answer your questions and help you determine your next steps.

Feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions about the home buying process in Chandler or the East Valley. Just give me a call/text at 602-295-6807 and I will be glad to help.

"Real Estate is not just a job for me, it's about making a difference in the lives of others"

Troy Erickson Realtor
Call/Text: 602-295-6807
TroyEricksonRealtor@gmail.com
Linkedin Profile
Facebook Page

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New Index Reveals Impact of COVID-19 on Real Estate

7/8/2020